Express Entry Draw History and Trends

A Comprehensive Look at Express Entry Draw History

Since its launch in January 2015, Canada's Express Entry system has become the primary pathway for skilled workers seeking permanent residence. Understanding the history of Express Entry draws and the trends in CRS (Comprehensive Ranking System) cutoff scores can help you plan your immigration strategy more effectively. This guide examines how draws have evolved over the past decade and what current patterns suggest for future applicants.

See also: How to Apply for Canadian Permanent Residence

See also: Express Entry CRS Score Guide

Whether you are just starting to explore Express Entry or you are already in the pool waiting for your invitation, knowing the historical patterns can help you set realistic expectations and identify the best strategies for improving your chances.

How Express Entry Draws Work

Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada (IRCC) conducts regular draws from the Express Entry pool. In each draw, IRCC sets a minimum CRS score and issues Invitations to Apply (ITAs) to candidates whose scores meet or exceed that threshold. The key parameters for each draw include:

• Draw type: General draws (all programs), program-specific draws (CEC, FSWP, FSTP), or category-based draws (healthcare, STEM, trades, etc.)
• CRS cutoff score: The minimum score needed to receive an ITA in that specific draw
• Number of ITAs issued: How many candidates are invited in that particular draw
• Date of the draw: When the draw takes place
• Tie-breaking rule: When multiple candidates have the same CRS score at the cutoff, the date and time of their profile submission is used as a tiebreaker

You can check the latest draw results on the IRCC Express Entry rounds of invitations page.

Early Years: 2015 to 2017

When Express Entry launched in January 2015, CRS cutoff scores were very high, often exceeding 800 points. This was largely because the system was new, and the initial draws targeted candidates with provincial nominations (which add 600 points) or valid job offers (which added 600 points at the time).

By mid-2015, IRCC began conducting larger draws, and CRS cutoffs started to decrease significantly. Key milestones during this formative period:

• January 2015: First draw with a CRS cutoff of 886, the highest in Express Entry history
• By late 2015, cutoffs dropped below 500 for general draws as the system matured
• In November 2016, IRCC changed the points awarded for a valid job offer from 600 to 50 or 200 points (depending on the NOC level), which significantly shifted the score distribution in the pool
• Throughout 2017, general draw cutoffs typically ranged from 413 to 468, establishing a more stable baseline
• The frequency of draws also increased during this period, with IRCC moving to roughly biweekly draws

The 2018 to 2019 Period

During 2018 and 2019, Express Entry draws became more frequent and predictable, creating a sense of stability for candidates in the pool. IRCC typically conducted draws every two weeks, and CRS cutoffs for general draws stabilized in the 440 to 470 range. Notable developments included:

• Increased annual immigration targets under the Immigration Levels Plan, leading to more ITAs per draw
• The introduction of the multi-year Immigration Levels Plan, which set targets for permanent residence admissions years in advance, giving applicants more predictability
• Growing global awareness of Express Entry, leading to a larger and more competitive pool of candidates from around the world
• CRS cutoffs for PNP-specific draws were typically higher (ranging from 698 to 791) since nominees already had the 600-point boost
• Average ITAs per draw ranged from 3,200 to 3,900 during this period, reflecting Canada's growing immigration targets

The Pandemic Years: 2020 to 2021

The COVID-19 pandemic had a dramatic and unprecedented impact on Express Entry draws. In 2020, IRCC initially continued regular draws but then shifted its strategy significantly in response to travel restrictions and processing challenges:

See also: How to Get Your SIN Number in Canada

• From February to September 2020, general draws continued with cutoffs ranging from 464 to 478
• Starting in late 2020, IRCC paused general draws and conducted only Canadian Experience Class (CEC) and PNP-specific draws
• CEC-only draws in early 2021 saw historically low cutoffs, dropping as low as 75 points in February 2021, which was remarkable and unprecedented
• This shift reflected the practical reality that candidates already in Canada could more easily complete the immigration process during travel restrictions and border closures
• The extremely low CEC cutoffs created a unique window of opportunity for candidates already in Canada with Canadian work experience, even those with very modest CRS scores

For candidates outside Canada, this period was frustrating as general draws were paused for approximately 18 months. Many used this time to improve their language scores, gain additional work experience, or explore provincial nomination options.

See also: Canadian Experience Class (CEC) Guide

Recovery and New Directions: 2022 to 2023

General Express Entry draws resumed on July 6, 2022, after the lengthy pause. The resumption brought several important changes and new dynamics:

• The first general draw in July 2022 had a CRS cutoff of 557, reflecting the very large backlog of candidates who had accumulated in the pool during the pause
• Cutoffs gradually decreased over the following months as the pool normalized and more invitations were issued
• IRCC introduced category-based draws in 2023, a major policy innovation that allowed targeting of candidates with specific qualifications such as healthcare occupations, STEM fields, trade occupations, transport, agriculture, and French language proficiency
• Category-based draws had varying cutoff scores depending on the targeted category, sometimes significantly lower than general draw cutoffs
• The introduction of category-based draws represented a fundamental shift in how Canada selects economic immigrants, moving beyond pure human capital scoring to address specific labor market gaps

Recent Trends: 2024 to 2026

In recent years, several important trends have emerged that shape the current Express Entry landscape:

Category-Based Selection Continues

IRCC has continued to use category-based draws alongside general draws. These targeted draws allow Canada to address specific labor market needs in sectors experiencing acute shortages. Categories have included healthcare, STEM professions, trades, transport, agriculture, and French language proficiency. If your occupation falls into one of these categories, you may receive an ITA even with a lower overall CRS score.

Draw Frequency and Size

IRCC has maintained a roughly biweekly draw schedule, though the timing and frequency can vary based on policy decisions and processing capacity. The number of ITAs per draw has fluctuated based on annual immigration targets set in the Immigration Levels Plan. Recent levels plans have adjusted targets in response to concerns about housing affordability, infrastructure capacity, and newcomer integration.

CRS Score Patterns

General draw cutoffs have typically ranged from 430 to 560 in recent periods, though this range can shift based on pool composition, draw frequency, and the number of ITAs issued. Category-based draws have had their own distinct cutoff ranges depending on the specific category. The trend has generally been toward more targeted selection rather than simply inviting the highest-scoring candidates.

Factors That Influence CRS Cutoffs

Several factors affect the CRS cutoff score in any given draw, and understanding these can help you anticipate future trends:

• Pool size: A larger pool generally means more competition and higher cutoffs, as there are more high-scoring candidates competing for a limited number of ITAs
• Number of ITAs: More invitations per draw typically results in lower cutoffs, as IRCC reaches deeper into the pool
• Draw frequency: More frequent draws prevent the pool from growing too large, which helps keep cutoffs lower and more stable
• Draw type: General draws vs. program-specific or category-based draws have different cutoff dynamics and target different candidate populations
• Immigration levels targets: Annual targets set by the government determine how many permanent residents Canada aims to admit through Express Entry
• Global events: Factors like pandemics, economic conditions, and geopolitical events can influence both the number and profile of applicants entering the pool
• Processing capacity: IRCC's ability to process applications affects how many ITAs they can issue in each draw period

How to Use This Information Strategically

Understanding draw trends can help you make informed decisions about your immigration strategy:

1. Benchmark your score: Compare your CRS score to recent cutoffs for both general and category-based draws. If your score is above recent general draw cutoffs, you are in a strong position. If not, consider strategies to improve it.
2. Improve your CRS score: Retake language tests for higher scores, gain more work experience, complete additional education, improve your spouse's language scores, or learn French for the bilingual bonus.
3. Consider a provincial nomination: If your CRS score is well below recent cutoffs, a provincial nomination adds 600 points and virtually guarantees an ITA.
4. Watch for category-based draws: If your occupation falls into a targeted category, you may benefit from lower cutoffs in those specific draws.
5. Time your profile submission: Submit your profile when you can present the strongest possible application. Waiting to improve your language scores or gain more experience can be worthwhile if it significantly boosts your CRS score.

For more information on how provincial nominations can boost your score, read our guide on How a Provincial Nomination Adds 600 CRS Points.

Where to Track Draws

The official source for Express Entry draw results is the IRCC website. Each draw result includes the date, type, CRS cutoff, number of ITAs, and the tie-breaking rule used. Checking this page regularly will help you stay informed about trends and anticipate when you might receive an invitation.

Practical Tip

Do not be discouraged if your CRS score is currently below recent cutoffs. The Express Entry system is dynamic, and cutoffs can change significantly from draw to draw based on the factors described above. Focus on actively improving your profile through better language scores, additional work experience, and exploring provincial nomination options. Keep your documents up to date so you are ready to respond quickly when an opportunity arises. Your best move is to stay informed, stay patient, and take concrete steps to strengthen your candidacy.